Check out the USA Today website for information on the latest poll [USA TODAY/Gallup Poll results].
Let's look at the result of two questions on Creationism and Evolution.
23. Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?
A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life
B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years
The interesting thing about these results is that only 18% think that evolution is a fact and only 15% believe that a 6000 year old Earth is definitely false. That's pretty frightening if you think about it.But here's something even more puzzling.
24. How familiar would you say you are with each of the following explanations about the origin and development of life on earth -- very familiar, somewhat familiar, not too familiar, or not at all familiar? How about -- [ITEMS ROTATED]?
A. Evolution
Almost everyone (82%) thinks they understand evolution well enough to have an opinion. They're almost certainly wrong.It shows us where we need to start. We need to get out the message that evolution is a scientific fact and that evolutionary theory is complicated enough that it requires some study in order to get the basic concepts down pat. Before we can teach we have to convince people that they need to learn.
I wonder how many of the people who think that evolution is true actually understand it?
12 comments :
Hmmm, good question. Frankly, I wonder if *I* understand evolution. I know what natural selection is and I know that genetic mutation plays a role, and I know the mixing of genes plays a role in heredity of charactersitics, and that genetic drift followed by a geographical speration plays a role in creating new species.
But my knowledge of biology, is, well, pathetic. :-)
But, I am willing to accept that evolution is a scientific fact based on the fact that every single science department at anything resembling a research university researches it and accepts it, just like I accept quantum mechanics though its conclusions are counterintuitive.
I dare say that there are very, very few people who understand quantum mechanics (meaning that they understand the mathematics of particle physics as well as its implications)
Any data on Canadians?
I wonder how many of the people who think that evolution is true actually understand it?
My guess is probably a fairly small percentage, it would be interesting to test that. Maybe we could find a professor of biology or some such to create a quick exam on a site like http://gotoquiz.com.
I wonder how many of the people who think that evolution is true actually understand it?
I'd guess the percentage is small ... but so what?
There are dozens if not hundreds of areas (scientific and otherwise) which are actually understood only by a small percentage of people.
In fact, there are probably almost no areas of this sort that are actually understood by more than a small percentage. That's just reality, and it won't change.
Scott says,
There are dozens if not hundreds of areas (scientific and otherwise) which are actually understood only by a small percentage of people.
In fact, there are probably almost no areas of this sort that are actually understood by more than a small percentage. That's just reality, and it won't change.
82% of Americans think they understand evolution. I wonder how many would say they understand quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, lunar eclipses, or thermodynamics?
Everyone know it takes a genius to understand quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, lunar eclipses, or thermodynamics. Seriously, for some odd reason that's beyond me evolution tends to be trivialized and interpreted as being simple to understand. I don't think it is surprising that many people out there think they have a good understanding of evolution, I have encountered this myself several times. Maybe USA TODAY should put together a short quiz about evolution to see how all those self declared experts measure up.
larry moran:
82% of Americans think they understand evolution.
Interesting stat ... but quite a different question.
I'm no authority, but I suspect that a contributing factor is that there are more "common sense" elements to evolution than are present in many other fields. Also, the "mathematization" of various bits of biology is a fairly recent phenomenon, and I'd guess that it's by far the least understodd part of evolution.
What I always find most confusing about these sorts of surveys is the lack of reciprocity.
A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life
Total True: 53%
Total False: 44%
B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years
Total True: 66%
Total False: 31%
Besides how depressing those numbers are, I find them very confusing, as they imply that some fraction of the population, around 10%, think that both of these mutually-incompatible opinions are somehow true. Look, either the Earth is 10,000 years old or so, or it's 4.5 billion years old or so. It cannot possibly be both ages.
Also, asking someone if they think they understand something is a stupid question in the majority of cases I can think of. What information do you gain if you find that 82% of respondents think they understand some thing? Without follow-up questions to determine what fraction of that 82% are either lying or mistaken, you have no idea how to interpret that 82% figure.
It's like asking people if they consider themselves good (i.e. better than average) drivers. Consistently, 80% or more of respondents to that question tell surveyors that they are better than average. For this to be true, the remaining self-depreciating fraction of the population would have to be absolutely atrocious drivers. The more plausible explanation is that many of the people who say they are good are either lying or mistaken. I think something similar applies to this understanding-evolution question, but to what degree remains unknown.
"there are more "common sense" elements to evolution than are present in many other fields. Also, the "mathematization" of various bits of biology is a fairly recent phenomenon, and I'd guess that it's by far the least understodd part of evolution."
"Common sense" is the enemy of science. :-)
Seriously though, I believe it is more correct to say that the systems have a higher complexity, which means their general description are of a more high level character.
The math, as for example in population descriptions, is definitely adding depth. :-) But I can be stumped by the qualitative descriptions as well because I am unfamiliar with the area and the mechanisms.
"I dare say that there are very, very few people who understand quantum mechanics (meaning that they understand the mathematics of particle physics as well as its implications)"
That means that you would exclude most examples of quantum mechanics, wouldn't it?
But if you mean that high energy particle physics is the current pinnacle of QM I can understand that, with renormalization and all. Though my guess is that nuclear physicists and molecular chemists may contest it. :-)
The only good thing from this poll is that the percentage that find belief in creationism to be deleterious in a candidate is slightly greater than the number that find it to be a positive attribute.
For a really depressing read, scroll down on the USA Today page and read the first few comments.
I guess one point that is unterrated is that most people never deal with numbers like hundreds of millions or a billion. It's just above their imagination. Maybe one should rather use the number of generations than the number of years of 6000 years.200 generations is not that impressive when one links it to the generation time of E. coli.
82% of Americans think they understand evolution."
yeh, they "understand" it well enough to "know" that it is wrong.
Whenever a large percentage of Americans think they understand something, that's a red flag.
It's a "Danger" sign. It means watch out, "Ignoramus Crossing".
The problem, of course, is that most Americans think they are experts on everything when in fact, the vast majority know every little about anything.
I know. I am one of them. :)
-- Jim
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