Scientists have been actively investigating the origin of SARS-CoV-2 for the past four years. The evidence strongly favors early transmission from infected animals in the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, China (Worobey et al., 2022; Alwine et al., 2023; Dwyer, 2023; Holmes et al., 2021; Holmes, 2024). The virus probably originated in bats in China or southest asia. [The case for a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2] [Real scientists discuss the lab leak conspiracy theory]
Some people have suggested that the infectious virus, SARS-Cov-2, escaped from a lab in the Wuhan Institute of Virology in spite of the fact that there's not a shred of evidence that the scientists there ever worked with such a strain before the pandemic and all the scientists deny that they had ever seen the pandemic virus before the pandemic began. Such suggestions have all the characteristics of a conspiracy theory (Lewandowsky et al., 2023; Goodrum et al., 2023).1
The New York Times has just published an opinion piece that promotes the lab leak conspiracy theory. It just happened to coincide with a Republican witch hunt investigation into Dr. Fauci and the origins of SARS-CoV-2. The article is written by Alina Chan who wrote a book on the subject with co-author Matt Ridley [Alina Chan teams up with Matt Ridley to promote the lab leak conspiracy theory].
- The SARS-like virus that caused the pandemic emerged in Wuhan, the city where the world’s foremost research lab for SARS-like viruses is located.
This is just about the only thing in the lab leak conspiracy theory that is true.
The year before the outbreak, the Wuhan institute, working with U.S. partners, had proposed creating viruses with SARS‑CoV‑2’s defining feature.
The Wuhan lab pursued this type of work under low biosafety conditions that could not have contained an airborne virus as infectious as SARS‑CoV‑2.
The labs followed all the standard procedures for work of this type and passed an international inspection.
The hypothesis that Covid-19 came from an animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is not supported by strong evidence.
That's a lie. There is strong evidence that the outbreak began in the market.
Key evidence that would be expected if the virus had emerged from the wildlife trade is still missing.
It's true that the exact infectious animal carrying SARS-CoV-2 has not been identified but the circumstantial evidence is strong—just as strong as the circumstantial evidence that sends some people to jail. It's crazy to say that evidence for animal transmission is missing when ALL the evidence for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 at WIT is also missing.
This is extremely misleading. The researchers at WIV worked in collabortion with scientists in other countries, including the United States, on investigating the features of coronaviruses that could lead to infection of humans. That's exactly what you would expect them to do. They never created a virus that could be infectious.
1. The researchers at WIV are highly respected international experts on virology, especially coronaviruses. They published in the best international journals. Since they all deny that they were working with SARS-CoV-2 before the pandemic, the lab leak hypothesis absolutely requires that several hundred reseachers are lying and covering up the fact that the virus leaked from their labs. In other words, a conspiracy is an essential part of the lab leak conspiracy theory [see Most scientists dismiss the lab leak conspiracy theory].
2. It's amazing how many media personalities have assumed that there must be some element of truth in this opinion piece just because it was published in the New York TImes. It's even more amazing that these media personalities couldn't find any real scientists to interview.
Alwine, J.C., Casadevall, A., Enquist, L.W., Goodrum, F.D. and Imperiale, M.J. (2023) A critical analysis of the evidence for the SARS-CoV-2 origin hypotheses, Am Soc Microbiol. 97: e00365-00323. [doi: 10.1128/jvi.00365-23]
Dwyer, D.E. (2023) The origins of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2. Seminars in Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Thieme Medical Publishers, Inc. [doi: 10.1055/s-0042-1759564]
Goodrum, F., Lowen, A.C., Lakdawala, S., Alwine, J., Casadevall, A., Imperiale, M.J., Atwood, W., Avgousti, D., Baines, J. and Banfield, B. (2023) Virology under the microscope—a call for rational discourse. Journal of virology 97:e00089-00023. [doi: 10.1128/jvi.00089-23]
Holmes, E.C., Goldstein, S.A., Rasmussen, A.L., Robertson, D.L., Crits-Christoph, A., Wertheim, J.O., Anthony, S.J., Barclay, W.S., Boni, M.F., Doherty, P.C., Farrar, J., Geoghegan, J.L., Jiang, X., Leibowitz, J.L., Neil, S.J.D., Skern, T., Weiss, S., R, Worobey, M., Anderson, K.G., Garry, R.F. and Rambaut, A. (2021) The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review. Cell 184:4848-4856. [doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.08.017]
Holmes, E.C. (2024) The emergence and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Annual review of virology 11. [doi: 10.1146/annurev-virology-093022-013037]
Lewandowsky, S., Jacobs, P.H. and Neil, S. (2023) Leak or Leap? Evidence and Cognition Surrounding the Origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus. Covid Conspiracy Theories in Global Perspective, ed. Michael Butter and Peter Knight:26-39. [PDF]
Worobey, M., Levy, J.I., Malpica Serrano, L., Crits-Christoph, A., Pekar, J.E., Goldstein, S.A., Rasmussen, A.L., Kraemer, M.U., Newman, C. and Koopmans, M.P. (2022) The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Science 377:951-959. [doi: 10.1126/science.abp8715]
Thank you so much for this reality check.
ReplyDeleteI find all of this depressing. Alina Chan is an opportunist and had no previous expertise in tracing the origins of human viruses prior to COVID. I have no idea why Matt Ridley jumped on this bandwagon either.
ReplyDelete"It's true that the exact infectious animal carrying SARS-CoV-2 has not been identified but the circumstantial evidence is strong—just as strong as the circumstantial evidence that sends some people to jail. [SNIP]
ReplyDeleteThis is weak as p _ ss. There are a finite number of mammalian species, and its been four & one half years since the initial outbreak.
I bet you haven't even read the Ridley & Chan book.
Did you see this in the new york times too?
ReplyDeleteThe Long-Overlooked Molecule That Will Define a Generation of Science
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/opinion/dna-rna-modern-science.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
“ Although most scientists now agree on RNA's bright promise, we are still only beginning to unlock its potential. Consider, for instance, that some 75 percent of the human genome consists of dark matter that is copied into RNAs of unknown function. While some researchers have dismissed this dark matter as junk or noise, I expect it will be the source of even more exciting breakthroughs.” Tom Cech
Delete"While some researchers have dismissed this dark matter as junk or noise, I expect it will be the source of even more exciting breakthroughs."
ReplyDeleteThe burden of proof is on those claiming that these transcripts have functions. One way to meet that burden is to show that the sequences being transcribed are under purifying selection. Absent that, the assertions that these transcripts are something other than junk/noise rest on arguments from authority, not arguments from evidence.
Unfortunately, Cech has authority, no matter what he says.
DeleteAnd you can see that Cech’s authority is respected by the fawning comments below the op-ed
DeleteSomething I don't think has received sufficient attention is that the Chan hit piece pushes not only a "lab leak" theory but an "engineered virus" theory that was blown out of the water years ago, see https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2211107119 .
ReplyDelete"This is weak as p _ ss. There are a finite number of mammalian species, and its been four & one half years since the initial outbreak.
ReplyDeleteI bet you haven't even read the Ridley & Chan book."
1. How does one measure the strength/weakness of piss (or is it pass or puss?). Is it via pH, flow rate?
2. There are a finite number of mammalian species. Duh, obviously. So what. Have we identified all of them yet? If so, if COVID-19 came from species X, does this mean all individuals in the species are carries? If 1000 dogs are tested for rabies and all are negative, does this mean rabies does not infect dogs?
3. 4.5 years. So? How long should it take and why, explain your work.
4. I bet you haven't even read the scientific articles referenced above or other scientific literature related to this issue. But sure, the one book written by non-scientists that supports your biases must be correct. Its all part of the conspiracy.
*I know I know, don't feed the trolls.
*Carriers
ReplyDeleteI responded to what you said here: https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2024/06/06/the-ny-times-is-just-the-worst/#comment-2230012
ReplyDeleteBut I should have responded here. I wont quote that response. I will just hit the highlights.
You need to read this: https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/USGS-DEFUSE-2021-006245-Combined-Records_Redacted.pdf
It is all(?) the drafts of a proposal made by Perter Daszak, in collaboration with Ralph Baric and Zhengli Shi. The things that are especially interesting are the comments in the right hand margin, they reveal what the collaborators were thinking and planning.
The proposal was to offer a suite of tools to make life easier for people who might need to fight wars around the southern border of China. (To protect against problems with bat coronaviruses)
In brief:
- the initial plan was to do the work at BSL2 (only Ralph Baric complained)
- They were going to take viral samples and engineer them to make them more virulent
- They were going to add human specific (Furin) cleavage sites to those samples whose RDB showed a good match for the human ACE2 receptor, but weren't actually good at cell entry.
- They were going to share the work out between Ralph and the WIV
The proposal was made to DARPA but all the positive benefits of the proposal would also be useful to the Chinese military, the people who would be most interested in coping with having to fight wars around the southern border of China.
The work could have been done solely by the Chinese contingent, at the WIV.
There is a lot that I haven't mentioned but you would be better off just reading the document.
Draft Proposal Document: https://usrtk.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/USGS-DEFUSE-2021-006245-Combined-Records_Redacted.pdf
ReplyDeletePage numbers to substantiate the claims I made...
Page 134: work to be shared between Baric and the WIV
Page 171: work to be carried out at BSL2
Page 254/255: Intention to add Furin cleavage sites, and the reason why
Here is an interesting paper on the closest relative to SARS-CoV-2: https://www.embopress.org/doi/full/10.15252/embr.202256055#body-ref-embr202256055-cit-0056
From the paper:
•
SARS‐CoV‐2 related bat virus BANAL‐236 replicates pauci‐symptomatically and is enterotropic in human models.
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BANAL‐236 infection confers protection against SARS‐CoV‐2.
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BANAL‐236 does not spread within human populations.
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Passaging of BANAL‐236 in human models does not generate a furin site and pathogenicity.
I am not saying that this was the virus that was modified to make SARS-CoV-2 but it is an ideal candidate for the addition of a Furin cleavage site at the optimal location.
I am saying that one of its relatives was the virus that could have been modified at the WIV to create SARS-Cov-2.
@John McAuley: Thank-you for illustrating how conspiracy theories work.
ReplyDelete