Evolution by Accident

Evolution by Accident
v1.43 ©2006 Laurence A. Moran
This essay has been transferred here from an old server that has been decommissioned.Modern concepts of evolutionary change are frequently attacked by those who find the notions of randomness, chance, and accident to be highly distasteful. Some of these critics are intelligent design creationists and their objections have been refuted elsewhere. In this essay I'm more concerned about my fellow evolutionists who go to great lengths to eliminate chance and accident from all discussions about the fundamental causes of evolution. This is my attempt to convince them that evolution is not as predictable as they claim. I was originally stimulated to put my ideas down on paper when I read essays by John Wilkins [Evolution and Chance] and Loren Haarsma [Chance from a Theistic Perspective] on the TalkOrigins Archive.

The privilege of living beings is the possession of a structure and of a mechanism which ensures two things: (i) reproduction true to type of the structure itself, and (ii) reproduction equally true to type, of any accident that occurs in the structure. Once you have that, you have evolution, because you have conservation of accidents. Accidents can then be recombined and offered to natural selection to find out if they are of any meaning or not.
Jacques Monod (1974) p.394The main conclusion of this essay is that a large part of ongoing evolution is determined by stochastic events that might as well be called "chance" or "random." Furthermore, a good deal of the past history of life on Earth was the product of chance events, or accidents, that could not have been predicted. When I say "evolution by accident" I'm referring to all these events. This phrase is intended solely to distinguish "accidental" evolution from that which is determined by non-random natural selection. I will argue that evolution is fundamentally a random process, although this should not be interpreted to mean that all of evolution is entirely due to chance or accident. The end result of evolution by accident is modern species that do not look designed.

First complete sequence of a human chromosome

A paper announcing the first complete sequence of a human chromosome has recently been posted on the bioRxiv server.

Miga, K. H., Koren, S., Rhie, A., Vollger, M. R., Gershman, A., Bzikadze, A., Brooks, S., Howe, E., Porubsky, D., Logsdon, G. A., et al. (2019) Telomere-to-telomere assembly of a complete human X chromosome. bioRxiv, 735928. doi: [doi: 10.1101/735928]

Abstract: After nearly two decades of improvements, the current human reference genome (GRCh38) is the most accurate and complete vertebrate genome ever produced. However, no one chromosome has been finished end to end, and hundreds of unresolved gaps persist. The remaining gaps include ribosomal rDNA arrays, large near-identical segmental duplications, and satellite DNA arrays. These regions harbor largely unexplored variation of unknown consequence, and their absence from the current reference genome can lead to experimental artifacts and hide true variants when re-sequencing additional human genomes. Here we present a de novo human genome assembly that surpasses the continuity of GRCh38, along with the first gapless, telomere-to-telomere assembly of a human chromosome. This was enabled by high-coverage, ultra-long-read nanopore sequencing of the complete hydatidiform mole CHM13 genome, combined with complementary technologies for quality improvement and validation. Focusing our efforts on the human X chromosome, we reconstructed the ∼2.8 megabase centromeric satellite DNA array and closed all 29 remaining gaps in the current reference, including new sequence from the human pseudoautosomal regions and cancer-testis ampliconic gene families (CT-X and GAGE). This complete chromosome X, combined with the ultra-long nanopore data, also allowed us to map methylation patterns across complex tandem repeats and satellite arrays for the first time. These results demonstrate that finishing the human genome is now within reach and will enable ongoing efforts to complete the remaining human chromosomes.

How much of the human genome has been sequenced?

It's been more than seven years since I posted information on how much of the human genome has been sequenced [How Much of Our Genome Is Sequenced?]. At that time, the latest version of the human reference genome was GRCh37.p7 (Feb. 3, 2012) and 89.6% of the genome had been sequenced. It's time to update that information.

We have a pretty good idea of the size of the human genome based on quantitative Feulgen staining (1940-1980) and reassociation kinetic experiments from the 1970s (Morton, 1991). We can safely assume that the correct size of the human genome is close to 3,200,000,000 bp (3,200,000 kb, 3,200 Mb, 3.2 Gb) [How Big Is the Human Genome?]. That's the value cited most often in the literature. However, the actual values calculated by Morton (1991) were 3.227 Gb for the haploid female genome and less than that for the haploid male genome. The human reference genome contains all 22 autosomes plus one copy of the X chromosome and one copy of the Y chromosome. This gives a total of 3.286 Gb.

Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 7. Going forward

This the last of a series of posts by Arlin Stoltzfus on the role of mutation as a dispositional factor in evolution. Arlin has established that the role of mutation in evolution is much more important than most people realize. He has also built a strong case for the influence of mutation bias. How should we incorporate these concepts into modern evolutionary theory?

Click on the links in the box (below) to see the other posts in the series.

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Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation.
7. Going forward
by Arlin Stoltzfus
Haldane (1922) argued that, because mutation is a weak pressure easily overcome by selection, the potential for biases in variation to influence evolution depends on neutral evolution or high mutation rates. This theory, like the Modern Synthesis of 1959, depends on the assumption that evolution begins with pre-existing variation. By contrast, when evolution depends on the introduction of new variants, mutational and developmental biases in variation may impose biases on evolution, without requiring neutral evolution or high mutation rates.

Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 5.5 Synthesis apologetics

This is part of a continuing series of posts by Arlin Stoltzfus on the role of mutation as a dispositional factor in evolution. In this post, Arlin explains how defenders of the Modern Synthesis react in the face of serious challenges to the theory that was formulated in the 1940s and 50s. Rather than reject the theory, they engage in various forms of "synthesis apologetics."

Click on the links in the box (below) to see the other posts in the series.

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Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 5.6 Synthesis apologetics
by Arlin Stoltzfus

Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 5.4. Taking neo-Darwinism seriously

This is part of a continuing series of posts by Arlin Stoltzfus on the role of mutation as a dispositional factor in evolution. In this post Arlin discusses his view of neo-Darwinism and why it is inconsistent with macromutations and lateral gene transfer. He equates neo-Darwinism with the Modern Synthesis (1959 version), a comparison that might be challenged. Click on the links in the box (below) to see the other posts in the series.

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Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 5.4. Taking neo-Darwinism seriously
by Arlin Stoltzfus
The Modern Synthesis is often described as the result of combining Darwinism and genetics. This description, in my opinion, is concise and historically accurate: the Modern Synthesis of 1959 is a sophisticated attempt to arrange the pieces of population genetics to justify a neo-Darwinian dichotomy in which variation merely supplies raw materials, and selection is the source of initiative, creativity and direction.

Religion vs science (junk DNA): a blast from the past

I was checking out the science books in our local bookstore the other day and I came across Evolution 2.0 by Perry Marshall. It was published in 2015 but I don't recall seeing it before.

The author is an engineer (The Salem Conjecture) who's a big fan of Intelligent Design. The book is an attempt to prove that evolution is a fraud.

I checked to see if junk DNA was mentioned and came across the following passages on pages 273-275. It's interesting to read them in light of what's happened in the past four years. I think that the view represented in this book is still the standard view in the ID community in spite of the fact that it is factually incorrect and scientifically indefensible.

Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation. 6. What "limits" adaptation?

This is part of a continuing series of posts by Arlin Stoltzfus on the role of mutation as a dispositional factor in evolution. In this post Arlin discusses the role of adaptation and what determines the pathway that it will take over time. Is it true that populations will always adapt quickly to any change in the environment? (Hint: no it isn't!) Click on the links in the box (below) to see the other posts in the series.

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Reactionary fringe meets mutation-biased adaptation.
6. What "limits" adaptation?
by Arlin Stoltzfus
According to the hatchet piece at TREE, theoretical considerations dictate that biases in variation are unlikely to influence adaptation, because this requires small population sizes and reciprocal sign epistasis.

Yet, we have established that mutation-biased adaptation is real (see The empirical case and Some objections addressed). If theoretical population genetics tells us that mutation-biased adaptation is impossible or unlikely, what is wrong with theoretical population genetics?

Adaptation, before Equilibrium Day