tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post3872919965306103834..comments2024-03-27T14:50:47.345-04:00Comments on <center>Sandwalk</center>: The case for a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2Larry Moranhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-45364858019309669142021-11-21T14:02:58.550-05:002021-11-21T14:02:58.550-05:00Since ERV insists saying it's impossible, here...Since ERV insists saying it's impossible, here are NIH documents describing how some scientists were perfectly successful in doing more infectious coronavirus <br />At the Wuhan virology institute they were making more infectious coronavirus <br />https://theintercept.com/2021/10/21/virus-mers-wuhan-experiments/<br /><br />I don't know where you get the idea it's so hard to make. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-46720621139268421642021-11-21T12:24:37.069-05:002021-11-21T12:24:37.069-05:00https://theintercept.com/2021/10/21/virus-mers-wuh...https://theintercept.com/2021/10/21/virus-mers-wuhan-experiments/<br /><br />Oh look, documents demonstrating scientists were indeed doing gain of function research on coronavirus. Since it was asked in the discussion ... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-4538193414580428782021-11-16T15:44:18.171-05:002021-11-16T15:44:18.171-05:00It can "infect" all bats, all canids, al...It can "infect" all bats, all canids, all felines and A LOT of other mammals. The replication rates after productive infection is a different matter. Symptomatic infection is another matter yet. There got to be a lot of host-specific restriction happening. <br />DKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03332861863615595162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-31927567836910846752021-11-16T15:39:28.780-05:002021-11-16T15:39:28.780-05:00"The backbone they used was a well-known mous..."The backbone they used was a well-known mouse coronavirus used for many years in labs all over the world."<br /><br />Ummm, Larry - there is a huge difference between "mouse coronavirus" (something they haven't used) and "mouse-adapted bat coronavirus"(something they have). Come on, you ought to know the difference! <br />DKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03332861863615595162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-78385493359498378632021-11-13T23:52:58.280-05:002021-11-13T23:52:58.280-05:00Why do you believe that? You must have a reason.Why do you believe that? You must have a reason.Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-90381984033035152312021-11-13T18:09:45.218-05:002021-11-13T18:09:45.218-05:00I believe that the WIV collected hundreds of Bat C...I believe that the WIV collected hundreds of Bat Covs, and that some of these BaTCoVs have sequence similarities to (but not identical) SarsCov2 greater than RaTG13 and BANAL<br /><br />One such CoV was engineered with a human FCS at the S1/S2 junction using a 12 NT insert, passaged in human airway epithelial cells and than in human ice hACE2 mice. At this point this virus was nearly SarsCov2 - it then infected a lab tech, perhaps during a dissection of an infected hACE2 mouse. That virus replicated in this worker (perhaps even asymptomatically) and this worker infected others.Yeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14260602095562796096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-23898888442862919232021-11-12T20:56:21.056-05:002021-11-12T20:56:21.056-05:00Your reply here is nonsense, and you should know b...Your reply here is nonsense, and you should know better. If you are going to go off preaching about critical thinking, you should ask yourself if you are genuinely engaging your own critical thinking facilities.<br /><br />Let me illustrate: the history of zoonotic spillovers is irrelevant in the absence of evidence that SARS-CoV-2 had ever been in any intermediate host. You first have to prove that an intermediate host had the virus before you start asserting that it has been spilled-over.<br /><br />And before you tell me there is evidence of an intermediate host, you might want to consider Bill Gallaher's opinion:<br /><br />"There are zero data that any animal but a bat served as a host to SARS-CoV-2 prior to its introduction into humans."<br /><br />https://virological.org/t/early-appearance-of-two-distinct-genomic-lineages-of-sars-cov-2-in-different-wuhan-wildlife-markets-suggests-sars-cov-2-has-a-natural-origin/691/4<br /><br />This entire post is largely the exact kind of speculation that Gallaher chides Garry for.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15460049499083017609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-79097762876548621792021-11-12T20:55:06.643-05:002021-11-12T20:55:06.643-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15460049499083017609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-19760787976908336282021-11-12T18:21:49.086-05:002021-11-12T18:21:49.086-05:00#1. An analysis of the sequences of various corona...#1. An analysis of the sequences of various coronaviruses can tell us a lot about whether SARS-CoV-2 could have evolved naturally. It certainly looks like it did, but you can't rule out a few genetic manipulations in a lab. You don't accuse scientists of lying based on that kind of speculation. <br /><br />#2. Of course a naturally occurring virus could have been studied in a lab and then leaked from a lab. You don't accuse the WIV scientists of lying and starting a pandemic just because you can imagine such a possibility. You have to have evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was being secretly studied in the lab before the pandemic started. Do you have such evidence?<br /><br />#3. We can judge the honestly of the WIV scientists by their past behavior. That's not foolproof but you would need evidence to accuse them of completely reversing their past behavior and lying about SARS-CoV-2. Just wanting it to be true doesn't count.<br /><br />#4. When you accuse scientists of lying and covering up their mistakes with no evidence to support your accusation, that's a conspiracy theory. If it involves dozens of scientists and government officials then it's a big conspiracy.<br /><br />#5. You really like conspiracy theories and cover-ups, don't you? <br />Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-29260682185960175102021-11-12T09:15:44.209-05:002021-11-12T09:15:44.209-05:00Misconception 1: genetic analysis can tell us whet...Misconception 1: genetic analysis can tell us whether a virus is 100% natural or not. Misconception 2: a natural virus wouldn't be involved in a lab leak (all lab escapes recorded in history involved naturally existing pathogens, including several SARS-CoV-1 lab acquired infections). Misconception 3: if WIV scientists had been working on SARS-2-like viruses in 2019, we would know about it (for a variety of reasons, research is often published months or years later, or even not published at all). Misconception 4: if it was lab leak, a big conspiracy would be needed to cover it up (see e.g. Sverdlovsk anthrax leak). Misconception 5: only the lab leak explanation requires people to believe there was a cover-up (the timeline and extent of the Wuhan outbreak were thoroughly covered up, by a drip-feed of muddled data, sample destruction, suppression of records, censored research and scrubbed databases).<br /><br />There's a lot more to be said, but I'm out of time nowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-28497724304484119752021-11-11T18:11:10.182-05:002021-11-11T18:11:10.182-05:00No thank-you. Those posts of full of lies, misconc...No thank-you. Those posts of full of lies, misconceptions, and misinformation.<br />Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-10885996417208862632021-11-11T18:05:17.057-05:002021-11-11T18:05:17.057-05:00The history of lab leaks is irrelevant in the abse...The history of lab leaks is irrelevant in the absence of evidence that the WIV was working with SARS-CoV-2 before the pandemic. You first have to prove that they had the virus before you start accusing them of leaking it. Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-52156597735325278542021-11-10T15:36:50.783-05:002021-11-10T15:36:50.783-05:00Note that Lab leaks have been happening since 1903...Note that Lab leaks have been happening since 1903 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents). USSR tried to covered up two (1977 and 1979) and CCP in 2003 SARS1. Read "China Syndrome" by Karl Taro Greenfeld to see psychology of coverup in China pre XJP. The book reads like Anthony Bourdain telling a story about a pandemicSJNJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-12430796560790257582021-11-10T15:33:28.059-05:002021-11-10T15:33:28.059-05:00Your blogpost talks a lot about history but you ne...Your blogpost talks a lot about history but you neglect to cover the history of bio-security lab leaks of which there have been 32 since 1903 <br /> (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity_incidents).Note that there are two extensive governmental coverups by USSR (1977 and 1979) and two during SARS1 by China. The issue is not the leak as much as the subsequent coverup. SJNJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-23222816383272556972021-11-10T10:46:13.806-05:002021-11-10T10:46:13.806-05:00I see that part of the proposal and I agree that y...I see that part of the proposal and I agree that your interpretation is plausible. However, I’m not sure that it’s the only interpretation because the wording is ambiguous. <br /><br />What are you suggesting? Are you suggesting that the WIV scientists secretly discovered and reconstructed a bat virus that was identical to SARS-CoV-2 except for the furin cleavage site then they deliberately introduced that furin cleavage site creating SARS-CoC-2? Then they allowed this virus to escape and start the pandemic?<br /><br />A few months before this, they accidentally posted the virus sequence on their website then took down the website. Somehow they managed to purge the secret virus sequence from the sites were the data had been cached. There must have been several dozen people who knew about this secret activity and none of them have talked. <br /><br />Do you really think this is what happened? Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-47527578635461681492021-11-10T10:04:26.450-05:002021-11-10T10:04:26.450-05:00I did not read any grant proposal that included cr...I did not read any grant proposal that included creating a furin cleavage site. Please post the link here.<br /><br />As far as I know, the furin cleavage site is not used to infect the mouse cell lines with the human ACE2. In fact, if it is present it is usually lost on serial passage in such cells. Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-86592256075899359652021-11-10T09:55:25.187-05:002021-11-10T09:55:25.187-05:00The international team of investigators tested var...The international team of investigators tested various bat coronavirus spike protein sequences to see if any of them were evolving the ability to bind ACE2. This would be an early warning sign of a potential pandemic. Some of the experiments we done in America labs.<br /><br />The backbone they used was a well-known mouse coronavirus used for many years in labs all over the world. Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-5033192618634222572021-11-10T09:45:20.533-05:002021-11-10T09:45:20.533-05:00"If a claim is only referred to indirectly wi..."If a claim is only referred to indirectly without fleshing out the actual scenario then you should be cautious. For example, if a scientist claims that SARS-CoV-2 was created in a lab but doesn't spell out how this might have been done other than hand-waving statments about furin cleavage sites then you have to ask yourself why they don't produce a specific scenario that can be examined. It usually means that the writer has not thought through their claim and has not considerd the implications. Those are bad signs."<br /><br />It is explained in pretty detailed steps in this proposal by EcoHealth, WiV (contrary to what is asserted in this grant, the chimera work is done at WiV not UNC, a fact confirmed by Peter D in emails to NIH obtained by FOI.).<br /><br />https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21066966-defuse-proposal<br /><br />On page 13 of the document (page number 11 of the actual proposal)<br /><br />Step 1. Collect Sars-like bat CoVs<br />Step 2. Look for incomplete human protelytic (furin) cleavage sites at the S1/S2 junction<br />Step 3. Engineer a functional human furin cleavage site<br />Step 4. Determine the effect on infectivity of this modification of chimeric virus on human airway respiratory cells (HAE) and humanized ACE2 mice<br /><br />The only thing missing from this detailed description is which bat sars-like CoV would be used as a backbone. But worry not - the proposal explains where those will be collected, "our cave" in Yunnan. <br /><br />We don't know how many and what the sequences are of Bat sars-like CoVs collected from the trips. That's why the take down on Sep 2019 of the pathogen sequencing database at the WiV is problematic - exactly the place where one would find a backbone. Yeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14260602095562796096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-71786597383897681972021-11-10T09:37:43.664-05:002021-11-10T09:37:43.664-05:00I’d be happy to discuss any scientific evidence th...I’d be happy to discuss any scientific evidence that supports the lab leak conspiracy theory. Please post it here.<br /><br />I’d already posted several articles on the various unfounded speculations that gave rise to the conspiracy. Please let me know if you think any of them need more attention.<br /><br />Also, please explain all of my “misconceptions over research-related scenarios.”Larry Moranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05756598746605455848noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-56001500880906555052021-11-10T09:31:54.075-05:002021-11-10T09:31:54.075-05:00Why are the Chinese authorities obstructing the in...Why are the Chinese authorities obstructing the investigation?<br /><br />All of this debate could be put to rest by the Chinese authorities, by in depth patient tracing, as was done for Sars1 with much more rudimentary tech. The WHO team, made up of scientists hand-picked (read: China-friendly) by the Chinese authorities, was shocked by the superficial job the authorities did on patient tracing. This was commented on by @PeterFoodSafety at the time (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/12/world/asia/china-world-health-organization-coronavirus.html), and re-iterated, more diplomatically, in a Nature paper earlier this year (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02263-6?proof=tNature).<br /><br />Obvious tracing-steps, like testing blood banks or medical samples from the Oct -Nov 2019 period has not been performed. When asked about this, the WHO team was told "Chinese privacy laws" precluded testing of such samples.<br /><br />The "privacy" argument is difficult to accept given the urgency of the question and that privacy laws seem to be selectively enforced (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/business/china-dna-uighurs-xinjiang.html).<br /><br />Even the must dis-interested observer could not help conclude that there is a distinct lack of will, if not outright obstruction by the Chinese authorities.<br /><br />The lab leak hypothesis (or simply, the Chinese authorities fear that it MIGHT be true) most parsimoniously explains this obstruction. The consequences if proven true, would possibly entail financial compensation on a scale unprecedented in human history.<br /> Yeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14260602095562796096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-42828197701395040192021-11-10T09:29:24.552-05:002021-11-10T09:29:24.552-05:00"This is not always an intuitive step for peo..."This is not always an intuitive step for people who don't understand probability terribly well "<br /><br />Given your freshmen level hand waving (no intent to insult my freshmen students, should any be reading) it seems you're in the group you describe. deanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08279929296814513986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-708554740628568292021-11-10T06:50:55.561-05:002021-11-10T06:50:55.561-05:00https://zenodo.org/search?page=1&size=20&q...https://zenodo.org/search?page=1&size=20&q=%22quay%20steven%22 Please review these 14 documents on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and review them in your blog. Thanks, SteveStevenQuayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16774112128798375734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-34238002331831452682021-11-10T06:11:05.894-05:002021-11-10T06:11:05.894-05:00Larry: your text sounds well-intentioned, but show...Larry: your text sounds well-intentioned, but shows a clear bias towards a natural zoonosis, and much misconception over research-related scenarios. In order to assess competing hypotheses you need to check them all, not merely the hypothesis decreed more likely by some 'experts', based on cherry-picked data in order to dispel a nightmare scenario for their own field.<br /><br />Borrowing on your Feynman quote, "details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them." I take it that you don't.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-16329277319020208592021-11-09T23:27:06.638-05:002021-11-09T23:27:06.638-05:00I see no attempt to deal with the issue of conditi...I see no attempt to deal with the issue of conditional probability/Bayesian inference. Of all the places in the world this could have started, it starts right next to a lab studying precisely the subset of viruses from which SARS-COV-2 comes (and, as we now know, looking to pursue GoF research on them), despite this area not featuring significant human contact with such viruses in the natural environment.<br /><br />Of note: under such circumstances, the more chances there are for such a pandemic to have started naturally in places other than Wuhan, the MORE we should be struck by the fact that it actually started IN Wuhan. This is not always an intuitive step for people who don't understand probability terribly well (they tend to think it counts in favour of the zoonosis hypothesis, when it does not). <br /><br />The zoonosis argument, while of course plausible, has to address this striking coincidence. The lab leak hypothesis does not. <br /><br />This is not some minor issue that can be hand-waved away with an appeal to precedent. It's a serious problem for the zoonosis argument. Dr Citrushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16265718649436015704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37148773.post-85724007101405457592021-11-09T20:42:22.761-05:002021-11-09T20:42:22.761-05:00Slightly off-topic but is there a list of which ba...Slightly off-topic but is there a list of which bats SARS-Cov-2 can infect? Can it infect horseshoe bats? What about pangolins? Is this something that experts all know about so don't bother to write down?<br />Thanks in advance!<br />Aramnoreply@blogger.com